Most predictions of the demands and supplies for energy and transportation, typically have assumed that end-user attitudes and life styles will be more of the same that was characteristic of the 20th century. NOTHING could be more in error. Demanding that a hydrogen (or even electric) powered car has to support the same consumer behavioral demands as to how quickly the tank is filled, and how fast the car has to drive, and how far it can go without refueling... was the kiss of death to the "freedom car". It was promoted as if a Chevy VOLT was going to do what all "Chevys" do, with only a slight change in the type of fuel used. THAT was a gigantic misread of technology development paths and user behavior formations. The hydrogen fueled "freedom car" was brain dead from the moment of its conception and mission statement. Fortunately, the break-through research conducted by the Department of Energy's National Labs is directly and immediately applicable to the 21st Century of personal vehicles made by folks other than General Motors for rich folks living in New York City.

Case in point. AT&T (Bell Labs) long ago invented the CCD imager and showed that it could be used for a "Video-phone" idea. Despite promotions and much market research, the idea never found a real market, and it took the Japanese consumer market to convert the CCD into a winning imaging technology. Not even Kodak learned how to make big bucks from electronic photography and ink-jet color printing of digital pictures. Many cell phones now have the ability to capture video images to share with others at the other end of the phone, made possible by a tiny LCD display on most hand held mobile phones which was something that Bell-Labs could never embrace. They are actually used for quasi-entertainment. Hello!

And, along came a cultural leader and true visionary (which Bell Labs never had after ol Alexander died) in the name of Steve Jobs, and almost overnight the idea of a highly intelligent phone and "tablet" computer became the hottest product demand of the century. Almost identical products existed before the Apple introductions, but they could not find a "market." That is, what changes more and faster than technological innovation are consumer preferences and behavior options as created by cultural leaders. President George Bush could never be the cultural leader selling us on hydrogen fueled vehicles. HE was an OIL MAN (or son of one).

When it comes to new energy technologies and transportation modes, the kiss of death would be to assume that we have to make 20th century technology bigger, or cleaner, or cheaper, or happier. CARS are an intimate part of petroleum and its energy source cannot be swapped out. Electricity and batteries might be fine for laptops and toasters, but they might NOT be the proper solution to the future of personal transportation. What will actually work has to be a totally integrated whole which includes POSITIVE CHANGES in USER BEHAVIORS as well as profitable modes of distribution and manufacture (that is ESSENTIAL). WE do NOT make/sell 747s that fly to Japan using the same techniques used to make cell phones. And we can't make radically new "energy" sources do the same-ol, same-ol. What people do with new energy technologies and transportation modes has to be different than what they did with petroleum fueled cars, in a totally integrated logical paradigm. The word "GALLON" (as in "gallon of gas equivalents" GGEs) is forever and exclusively relevant to the 20th century's mode of transportation. In the 21st century, the energy unit will be "GIGAJOULES". Count-on-it.

Initially, it must be assumed that gasoline is going to be produced and distributed throughout the 21th century to fuel cars and commercial airplanes. Fears of global climate change (real or not) cannot be the leverage used to fund and to subsidize new energy methods and transportation modes. RATHER, technology must FOLLOW human interests and cultural focus which is CREATED by opinion leaders. Soon, it MAY be "popular" to watch things with 3D glasses (or not), and that will be driven by political and cultural influences of those who can communicate the REAL value of such an innovation. Sex, Drugs and RockNRoll were sold very successfully to the children of folks who thought those things were no-nos. And worse, you cannot interview the general public and simply ask what they want from the future... you will only get ideas like a "five-cent-bong", and Cadillac convertibles powered by leaves from the hemp plant. The "future" is made, it does not just "happen".

Gigagallons of gasoline will be the rate at which we will continue to use petroleum until it basically runs out (at least economically). BUT, those precious hydrocarbons would better be used to make garbage bags than to be burned to go places faster. Billions have already been spent trying to get the public to embrace energy conservation and environmental protections and pollution control. But something better than gigagallons in gigacars has NOT yet been turned into an attractive product. It does NOT even have to be cheaper at its introduction. But it has to be something that folks like to use more than the current alternative. THAT message has not yet been made for the future of new energy sources and transportation formats. On this, GIGMEDIA CONSULTING has some very promising ideas.